The economic case for saving human jobs

Few periods in modern history have been as unsettled and uncertain as the one that we are living through now. The established geopolitical order is facing its greatest challenges in decades, with a land war in Europe entering its third year and shifting power dynamics upending what were once settled relationships across the globe. The economy is teetering on the edge of recession, with financial markets in chaos, central banks struggling to navigate inflationary pressures, and consumer confidence levels at historic lows. And beneath these more visible disruptions runs a quieter but perhaps more fundamental transformation: the accelerating advancement of artificial intelligence, a technology that is reshaping how we think about work, productivity, and economic value. 

It is tempting to push aside worries about the future effects of new technologies when we are distracted by the global turmoil that is outside our windows right now. But if we fail to get ahead of the question of how our societies and economies will deal with automation, the consequences may be far more profound and enduring than the crises that absorb us today. The questions of who works, how they work, and whether that work provides dignity and sustenance will ultimately define our economic future more fundamentally than any temporary market correction or geopolitical realignment.

Historically, technological advances have led to long-term economic growth and new employment opportunities even when automation has caused short-term job losses. It would be easy to assume that this pattern will be repeated with artificial intelligence. But this would be a grave mistake. When algorithms can learn, create, and act independently, assumptions that have evolved around the automation of mechanical processes can no longer be treated as reliable guides.

The Numbers Game

One of the reasons things will be different this time is the sheer speed and scale of the transformation that is rushing toward us. Researchers have calculated that 60% of current job roles did not exist 80 years ago, which is already an astonishing fact. Yet AI promises even faster and more profound changes to the job market. 

Recent projections are sobering:

·      McKinsey projects that 30% of all hours worked in the U.S. could be automated by 2030 

·      Goldman Sachs argues that up to 300 million jobs globally are “exposed” to automation 

·      The IMF suggests that 40% of jobs are at risk globally, rising to 60% in advanced economies 

And these are just the short-term predictions. In the longer-term, many tech leaders agree with Bill Gates that humans will no longer be needed for “most things.”

So, what’s the “business as normal” prediction? The World Economic Forum offers a more optimistic forecast: While 92 million jobs will be displaced globally over the next five years, 170 million new positions will be created.

Not a rosy picture

The arguments for the increases in future roles, however, are far from persuasive. 

The largest area of growth, the report argues, will come in very traditional roles like farm workers, delivery drivers, and food processing workers. Yet these are precisely the jobs that existing technology can already automate. The fastest growing roles, meanwhile, are projected to be in technology, including many new positions for specialists in data analysis, software development, and fintech engineering. But the assumption that AI will create rather than take jobs in these fields is optimistic, to say the least. 

The real-world data paints a less than rosy picture. For instance, while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts an 18% rise in the number of software developers between 2022 and 2032, recent research suggests that actual numbers in 2022–2025 figures have declined, with significant falls in both employment and job openings in this field.

Waves Not Ripples

Even in the best-case scenario where AI increases both overall economic activity and overall employment, major disruptions are inevitable. If millions of low-skilled jobs are soon to be replaced by high-skilled tech jobs, we will need an unprecedented global re-skilling program to ensure that displaced workers can find new roles. Without this, we risk abandoning millions of workers, and it is no exaggeration to suggest that the social and political effects of such a move will be catastrophic. Western nations are still struggling to adapt to the collapse of traditional manufacturing industries. A new employment crisis for those who already have the fewest prospects will be devastating. Yet there are few signs of any kind of organized response at the governmental level.

In the worst-case scenario, these social waves will become a tsunami. Rapid automation causing widespread unemployment could trigger the kind of unrest that destroys communities and topples governments. A generation of jobless, purposeless youth unable to secure entry-level roles because the only remaining human positions require experience and expertise will pose a grave geopolitical threat.  

Macroeconomically, excessive automation risks create a dangerous demand deficiency—a situation in which our economy can efficiently produce more goods and services than an ever-shrinking base of employed consumers can afford to purchase. This creates a paradox for businesses rushing to automate: the very efficiency gains they seek might ultimately undermine their markets. Machines don’t purchase smartphones, subscribe to streaming services, or buy homes. Humans do. When companies optimize for efficiency without considering employment, they may inadvertently be sabotaging the consumer spending ecosystem that sustains them. If AI causes sustained unemployment, the resulting drop in aggregate demand won’t just harm individual businesses—it could trigger a deflationary spiral that threatens the stability of the entire economy.

Democratizing Responsibility

Automation isn’t inherently negative. Just as previous technological advances freed us from hard and dangerous physical labor, AI has the potential to relieve us of many routine burdens that stand in the way of true human flourishing. But it can only fulfill this promise if it is thoughtfully integrated into our lives and societies.

In theory, governments could mitigate the economic risks through regulation. But history suggests that regulatory frameworks rarely keep pace with technological revolutions. We cannot wait for top-down solutions to emerge. Instead, we need to democratize both responsibility and leadership when it comes to managing the pace of automation and protecting the social and economic foundations on which we all depend.

Businesses have a crucial role to play in this process. They must adopt regenerative leadership that looks beyond short-term efficiency gains and instead considers the long-term sustainability of the broader ecosystem. Leaders must recognize that their employees aren’t merely replaceable resources but also consumers driving economic demand. This requires shifting from traditional thinking that focuses on quarterly results to systems thinking that considers long-term economic sustainability.

Companies that embrace this responsibility will implement automation strategies that enhance human potential through:

·      Preserving entry-level positions. Companies must maintain some starter roles to develop skilled workers, even when automation seems more efficient.  

·      Re-skilling and workforce transition programs. Corporations should fund upskilling initiatives to help displaced workers transition into new roles, such as managing and curating the workflows of AI agents. 

·      Recognizing societal interdependence. Businesses exist within communities in which employees and customers form an interconnected system, and that system will break down if customers lack jobs. A holistic view of this symbiotic relationship between companies and the markets they serve will be essential in the AI age.

Choosing Our Future

The AI revolution presents us with a critical choice between unchecked automation and thoughtful implementation. Each business decision today will shape our collective future. By prioritizing human well-being alongside innovation, responsible leaders won’t just be protecting their own customer base—they will be contributing to the resilience of our entire economic system. The future belongs not to those who automate fastest, but to those who navigate this transition with wisdom, treating AI as a tool for augmentation rather than replacement, and recognizing that true prosperity requires both technological advancement and human flourishing.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91322030/the-economic-case-for-saving-human-jobs-ai-and-the-future-of-work?partner=rss&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss+fastcompany&utm_content=rss