Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States, taking up office (once again) in January. Any change in administration signals a shift in priorities, and a new person in power would sweep out some of their predecessor’s policies—especially given the way Trump’s attitudes and politics sit at the polar opposite of the previous administration.
Here’s how the tech sector could be impacted by Trump’s win.
Could we see a trade war with China?
“The big worry among many global tech investors we speak with is around . . . what this means for the U.S.-China Cold tech war and stepped-up tariffs,” says Dan Ives, managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities. According to the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, Trump was seen as a much less reliable trade partner than his successor during his first White House stint. Trump has had China in his crosshairs since his first run in the White House, and this time around has threatened to put tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods—which would, in effect, trigger a massive trade war.
But Georgetown University law professor Anupam Chander questions if other countries will join the U.S. in its hardline approach to China. If Trump pursues that attitude towards China, which operates as the manufacturing hub of the world, “tech policy will be in turmoil,” he says. “Will the various ongoing antitrust actions against the leading U.S. internet companies continue with the same vigor? We may find fewer foreign allies in curbing China’s technology development, as countries increasingly look out for themselves.”
Elon is the election’s other big winner
Elon Musk put the full weight of his support behind Trump—as well as a good part of his own fortune, through his America PAC. The billionaire entrepreneur even stumped for Trump on the campaign trail and got a shout-out from the president-elect in his acceptance speech in West Palm Beach this morning. (During the campaign, Trump suggested Musk could lead a government efficiency office.)
“Elon Musk’s various tech firms, especially SpaceX, are likely to prosper with U.S. government support,” says Chander.
The social media platform X could also see a big boost, since it has under Musk’s ownership emerged as a major right-wing hub. Republican-leaning advertisers accounted for six out of the 10 biggest advertisers on X so far this year according to data compiled by FWIW News, with the official @TeamTrump account spending the better part of $1 million through November 1 alone.
Ives believes that Trump could accelerate the autonomous vehicle initiatives being spearheaded by Tesla and rival Waymo (even though Republicans have been critical of the Biden administration for offering rebates for electric vehicles).
Expect a crypto boom
Trump presented himself on the campaign trail as an unabashedly pro-crypto president, and the price of bitcoin has boomed after Trump’s Election Day victory. Little surprise there: According to the investment firm Jefferies, “there is a clear commitment from the Trump campaign to deregulate the crypto industry.” Trump said in August that he would fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler “on day one”; Gensler has been a vocal opponent to the crypto sector.
What happens to AI?
Jefferies analysts believe that there could be big changes afoot for AI under the Trump administration. “Trump would likely focus on deregulating testing and evaluation requirements and correcting for potential anti-conservative biases,” they wrote in a note to investors. However, we will likely still see some sort of AI rules, similar to the route that Biden was pursuing—the wish to do so is broadly bipartisan across the federal government. During his previous presidency, Trump said he was “committed to strengthening American leadership in artificial intelligence.”
Ives believes the AI sector will ramp up even further under Trump. “We would expect significant AI initiatives from the Beltway within the U.S. that would be a benefit for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and other tech players,” he says.
Shaky ground for the FTC
One of the biggest unknowns is what happens to Lina Khan at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). “The biggest thorn in the side for Big Tech has been the head of the FTC, Lina Khan, which has challenged deals of all shapes and sizes in the tech sector,” says Ives. Opinions are split about whether Trump will keep or ditch Khan, with Ives believing it’s increasingly likely that she will be out of her post. “The Musk influence for Trump could also catalyze and accelerate a potential Khan exit at the FTC which would remove a major overhang on the tech sector,” he says.
Regardless of who is installed at the FTC, it’s likely that the change in presidency will signal a change in the White House’s approach to Silicon Valley. “Tech platforms will be more likely to kowtow to a Trump presidency, knowing that antitrust authorities could be weaponized against them if they, for example, label Trump’s speech as hate speech,” says Chander.
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