Exxon upcoming earnings, oil discussion.

Hello all, been a while since I've posted here about oil. Been having fun gambling during the bear rallies and losing some fun money with phone app. Time to make it back. Welp, funs over, back to business. Exxon has earnings coming up and it's estimated to be a blowout, slightly less than $90 billion in revenues. With oil prices as they were during the quarter, I expect a solid earnings beat, but I am slightly worried about the sell the news mentality, so am considering hedging my long position. I believe that we have not seen peak oil prices yet, mainly due to the strategic reserves being released. 120 million barrels to be exact, that is 20% more than global use for one whole day. Draining of strategic reserves In my opinion, is bullish for the remainder of the year. It destabilizes prices. With the sanctions on Russia and what not still ongoing, and being discussed in the EU, I think working with the facts will be a must to avoid speculation and being too married to this trade. I don't know if the EU will ban Russian oil, Germany is strongly opposed as they are reliant on natural gas. But there is a lot of news released about other EU countries pumping more oil to meet demand in case the EU does ban Russian imports. Either way, the base case is still bullish, as I don't believe the war will end soon. I am unsure of what to make of this situation, and it can change by the month. We will have to wait and see. We have sold off this week due to China lockdowns and what not, maybe this is ignorant, but I view this as a non issue, and see it blowing over within a few months. Profit taking on that news is to be expected, and oil prices have stayed above $100 during this fear, albeit, not by much, and it does look weak. That being said, the analyst expectations for long term oil are based on $60 per barrel, which is obviously in the rear view for now. We will see these prices again for sure, but I think the feds willingness to fight inflation means that these prices will be hear to stay for at least a couple years. Exxon has lagged over it's peer Chevron, (not by much) when Exxon's "all-in" on fossil fuels is advantageous in my eyes. With their profits soaring, they will seek further uses for carbon capture. Obviously, CC is nothing new, but on a large scale, can definitely be a catalyst to the long term value of the oil giant. I also have noticed oil being more of a defensive pick these days as well, as besides the news of the .5 rate hike, have traded against the market and has been moving up with healthcare names. Also I'd like to mention, the .5 rate hike was expectedly not priced in by how fast the market recovered when the .25 failed to send the correct message to investors. I think Exxon longs will be happy for earnings, and finally, the part that most people are waiting for, is the dividend increase. I'm not sure if Exxon will speak on it at this earnings, but I do believe it is coming this year. That will be a major catalyst to help get Exxon over $100 per share, which I believe we will see this cycle. Happy investing and trading all, best of luck, if there's any insight you have, drop it here. I love to read the comments from my oil people! submitted by /u/third_legatron [link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/u9y7en/exxon_upcoming_earnings_oil_discussion/