Climate change increased the odds of Los Angeles' devastating fires, researchers say

As Los Angeles reels from the loss of lives and homes to the Easton and Palisades fires, scientists are asking why the events of this January have been so catastrophic. Climate change very likely played a part in setting the stage that caused multiple fires to sweep through the region, according to analysis from the World Weather Attribution, an international research initiative.

"Eight of the eleven models examined also show an increase in extreme January [Fire Weather Index], increasing our confidence that climate change is driving this trend," the group said of their investigation.

Earth is currently 1.3°C hotter than it was before the industrial era began. The WWA found that extreme Fire Weather Index conditions are 35 percent more likely to occur in the LA area at this temperature. If the planet increases 2.6°C from its pre-industrial temperature, extreme conditions become another 35 percent more likely. Based on current policies, a 2.6°C higher temperature is the minimum increase the Earth is projected to reach by the year 2100.

The researchers noted, however, that the growing odds of those peak conditions is not a linear progression. Other factors also contributed to the widespread devastation across the Los Angeles area, including lack of rain; the region had not received significant rainfall since May 2024. This type of drought condition is 2.4 times more likely at the Earth's current temperature than at its pre-industrial level. Santa Ana winds also caused the rapid spread and difficulties containing the blazes. The team said that the impact of wind is not always reflected well in climate models.

The World Weather Attribution conducts rapid studies into extreme weather events to analyze whether climate change was a factor. The international team of researchers aim to address the impact of climate in natural disasters "while the impacts of the extreme weather event are still fresh in the minds of the public and policymakers, and decisions about rebuilding are being made."

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