While many economic forecasters expected a recession to begin early 2023, what we got instead was a robust continuation of the recovery post-Covid after a sluggish 2022. Last year we saw two quarters of negative GDP, often cited as a simple test for a "technical recession".
However, 2023 was a different story. 1Q real GDP was 2.0% and 2Q was 2.4%. Now the Fed's latest GDPNow estimate for 3Q is at a whopping 4.1% due to increasingly positive economic data and a resilient labor market.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Even though extremely strong unemployment has not changed much, participation is still very low by historical standards.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=17Geu
This combined with plummeting corporate debt costs suggest the economy can keep adding jobs and potentially continue to grow for years before any recession is seen.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/155pcc1/for_the_first_time_in_six_decades_net_interest/
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15lv6w8/federal_reserve_has_boosted_latest_gdp_projection/
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