An overlooked angle of the Supreme Court, student loan decision tomorrow

The Supreme Court will give a decision on the student loan relief tomorrow. Personally, with the conservative justices on the court, I don't think that student loan relief will go through. Either way, student loan payments are starting back up this fall.

I'm not sure what the numbers would be if it passes, but if it doesn't, the average payment is going to be $350/month. With 40M borrowers, that's $14B/month total in student loan payments. Some think that this will have a negative effect on the economy and markets. Sure, it will affect discretionary, consumer spending. Some of that money is probably going into markets as well. I think that it could have a small effect, but not as big as others are predicting. $14B/month is a good chunk of money, but is peanuts compared to the $95B/month that the Fed is doing in QT and the $900B in new debt issuance that the Treasury still needs to do before October.

Although, I just thought of something else...

There could be some people out there that have been saving up the money that they would have used for student load payments. $350/month over 3 years is $12.6k. There could be some people out there that thought, "Gee whiz. Even though payments are on pause, I should still pay down my loans. However, $10k of my loans might get forgiven, and I wouldn't want to pay off something that is going to get wiped away. So.... I'll take $10k and save/invest it. If relief doesn't pass, I'll just use that money to pay towards my loans. If it does, then I'll have $10k."

Now, I don't have a lot of faith in the financial responsibility of the US population, but let's say that a meager 10% of borrowers (4M) did this. That would translate to $40B. Adding it to the monthly payments of $14B would mean that $54B would come out of the economy at the beginning of October.

Again, it's a lot smaller than the operations of the Fed and Treasury, but this scenario playing out would give it more teeth than expected.