Does anyone else feel that volatility from inflation data moving markets has gotten less significant over time and the markets are actually more worried about 2023 Q2 earnings than inflation? I was wondering in your opinion how much earnings estimates are actually priced in to the markets.
According to FactSet:
- Earnings Decline: For Q2 2023, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -7.2%. If -7.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest earnings decline reported by the index since Q2 2020 (-31.6%).
- Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average(18.6) and above the 10-year average (17.4).
Furthermore:
-As of today, 113 S&P 500 companies have issued EPS guidance for the second quarter. This number is above the 5-year average of 96 and above the 10-year average of 98.
-Of these companies, 67 have issued negative EPS guidance and 46 have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is above the 5-year average of 57 and above the 10-year average of 63. The number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance is also above the 5-year average of 40 and above the 10-year average of 35.
-While the number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q2 is consistent with the numbers in three of the past four quarters, the number of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q2 is well above the numbers of the past few quarters.
Finally:
-In fact, the second quarter has seen the highest number of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for a quarter since Q3 2021 (56).
-At the sector level, the Information Technology and Industrials sectors have the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance for the second quarter at 20 and 9, respectively. Combined, these two sectors account for more than half (29) of all the companies in the S&P 500 issuing positive EPS guidance for the second quarter (46)
Just looking at some of these data points gives me cause for concern, especially with the amount of positive EPS guidance for tech and Sp500 stocks after the big run-up during the past few months. It seems that there seems to be some divergence with this positive guidance and the negative projected earnings decline for Sp500 for Q2 2023.
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/14xxfis/2023_q2_earnings_how_much_is_actually_priced_in/
Login to add comment
Other posts in this group
Please use this thread to discuss your portfolio, learn of other stock tickers, and help out users by giving constructive criticism.
Why quarterly? Public comp
When you sell a stock to buy another stock, do you prefer to set the estimated amount of the capital gains taxes aside in a money market or do you think it better to
Saving for retirement is crucial, but relying solely on a 401(k) might not be enough due to high inflation. Consider investing in growth stocks, especially in the tec
I’m think this is not a good investment as there is no chatter at all on the 52 week low. They are involved in a class action lawsuits by investors and credit card co
Sorry if this is the wrong sub. Let’s say I had $1 million in VOO but I wanted to sell half of it to buy SCHD. It would suck to pay taxes on $500k. So how would you g
Hey guys, I did a deep dive into Crocs. In this analysis, I will do a brief breakdown of the company and go over some quantitative data, qualitative data and estimate
