"Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work," Harker said in a speech in Philadelphia.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may be at a point where the central bank can hold interest rates steady and allow previous rate hikes to continue lowering inflation.
That view, he said, is backed up by the latest economic data coupled with discussions with banks.
Two weeks ago, the Fed raised rates for the 11th time to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, in what was thought to be the first of two rate hikes for the remainder of the year.
Harker said he believes the Fed is making progress on bringing inflation down and is encouraged by the latest reading on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Inflation rose 3%, or 4.1% excluding volatile food and energy prices.
"We are making progress against inflation," he said. "It has been slow progress, and I am watchful of any reemerging price pressures. We remain unwavering in our commitment to bring inflation back to target."
Before the Fed meets again on September 20, the central bank will have a slew of new economic data to consider, with another PCE report, one more employment report, and two CPI reports among them.
Harker says once the Fed moves to hold rates, the central bank will hold rates high for a while.
"The pandemic taught us to never say never, but I do not foresee any likely circumstance for an immediate easing of the policy rate," he said.
Harker sees a path to a soft economic landing with a slight uptick in unemployment. He expects core PCE inflation to decline to just below 4% by the end of the year, before falling below 3% next year and leveling out at the Fed’s 2% target in 2025.
"I do see us on the flight path to the soft landing we all hope for and that has proved quite elusive in the past," Harker added.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-harker-fed-may-be-ready-to-hold-rates-steady-123957253.html
Futures have been steadily pricing in continually lower odds of a 2nd hike ever occurring.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15lwak2/fed_official_patrick_barker_says_federal_reserve/
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